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Title : World Cup: What Messi and company must do to advance to knockout stage
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World Cup: What Messi and company must do to advance to knockout stage

Argentina still has a chance to finish second in Group D at the World Cup despite a draw to Iceland and a terrible loss to Croatia on Thursday.

Nigeria's 2-0 win over Iceland on Friday gives the South Americans a lifeline and a pretty straightforward path to the round of 16. The scenarios aren't overly complicated like they would have been had Iceland won, and this news has to inject some excitement into the team, which has been very poor in its first two matches.

Here's how things are looking:

So, Group D...

Final round of fixtures:

#NGA vs #ARG

#ISL vs #CRO

Here's what can happen for Argentina and the others.

Croatia

Croatia wins the group with a win or draw vs. Iceland, and they'll also win the group if Nigeria fails to win. If Nigeria wins and Croatia loses, Croatia could slip to second on goal differential. But with a plus-five differential right now, it's very unlikely. It's safe to pen them in as group winners.

Nigeria

Nigeria clinches a spot in the knockouts with a win or draw vs. Argentina. They have a chance at winning the group if they win and Croatia loses, though they have a big gap to make up in goal differential (see above). Nigeria can advance with a draw as long as they stay ahead in goal differential if Iceland beats Croatia. If the two teams are tied in differential, it goes to goals scored to figure out who advances, where Nigeria is currently one goal ahead. A loss to Argentina would eliminate Nigeria, regardless of the other result.

Iceland

Iceland has to win vs. Croatia to have any chance. If they win and Nigeria loses to Argentina, Iceland advances. If they win and Nigeria draws, Iceland has to make up the goal differential, which means beating Croatia by at least two goals (their current deficit in differential). If the teams wind up tied in differential, Iceland will need to have more goals scored in the tourney than Nigeria, and they're currently one behind.

Argentina

Lionel Messi and company have to beat Nigeria. They will be through if they win and Iceland fails to win. They can also go through with a victory even if Iceland wins, as long as they make up the goal differential. For example, if Argentina wins 3-0 and Iceland wins 2-1, they would be level on points but Argentina's goal differential would be zero, while Iceland's would be minus-one. So it's simple for Argentina: win and try to win big.

Still lots to play for. Croatia vs. Iceland and Argentina vs. Nigeria, which will take place on Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET.

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